Ukraine

garlichead said:
I'm not so sure. The Russian people are not Putin.
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I´ve lived in a "so -called" Socialist Paradise for the past 22 years. The Russian (sub - Venezuelan, Cuban, Nicaraguan,Belarusian, Syrian, etc.) people have little or no chance of bringing down a dictatorship. Well-known opposition politicians are hounded, beaten, shot, and imprisoned. "Democratic" protests are met with bullets, tear gas and repression. Student protests are met with murder. Elections are fixed. The justice system is packed with "government" lackeys, as is the Electoral process. Believe me, the "West" has no bloody idea what it´s like when "Socialism" takes hold. The only way out is destruction.
The West has a rose-tinted spectacle vision of repressive regimes.
" OH! Let´s have an election!!"
"OH! Let´s have a strike!"·
Wrong, wrong, wrong - in the real world, it doesn´t happen like that. These sons of putin will do anything to keep hold of power, even if that involves the genocide of their own people.
 
karadekoolaid said:
I´ve lived in a "so -called" Socialist Paradise for the past 22 years. The Russian (sub - Venezuelan, Cuban, Nicaraguan,Belarusian, Syrian, etc.) people have little or no chance of bringing down a dictatorship. Well-known opposition politicians are hounded, beaten, shot, and imprisoned. "Democratic" protests are met with bullets, tear gas and repression. Student protests are met with murder. Elections are fixed. The justice system is packed with "government" lackeys, as is the Electoral process. Believe me, the "West" has no bloody idea what it´s like when "Socialism" takes hold. The only way out is destruction.
The West has a rose-tinted spectacle vision of repressive regimes.
" OH! Let´s have an election!!"
"OH! Let´s have a strike!"·
Wrong, wrong, wrong - in the real world, it doesn´t happen like that. These sons of putin will do anything to keep hold of power, even if that involves the genocide of their own people.
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Although I agree with almost all of that, but socialism exists in some democracies, to varying degrees. Socialism isn't the evil, it is dictators. Augusto Pinoche was certainly not a socialist.

Which brings us to Putin. He's not a socialist, IMO. His economic system better resembles the Mafia than it does socialism.

As for negotiations with Putin to end this war. Will he be satisfied with just getting what he claims to have wanted? Can he be trusted? I have my doubts. Also, what's his next victim of blackmail? Who else will he attack if they don't reduce their armies and pledge to never join NATO?

My number one question is without a doubt, will he keep his word? Will he just use a "treaty" to regroup, and invade again, emboldened in knowing that he can? That's especially true if Ukraine agrees to unilaterally disarm. A weaker Ukraine that is still not part of NATO would be easy to take over.

Lots of complicated things to be thought through.

CD
 
BTW, one of the reasons countries like Germany signed such big oil and gas contracts with Russia was a belief that it would give them some leverage over Putin. They figured Russia would be too dependent on these oil deals to do anything drastic... like invade Ukraine.

How's that workin' out?

CD
 
caseydog said:
BTW, one of the reasons countries like Germany signed such big oil and gas contracts with Russia was a belief that it would give them some leverage over Putin. They figured Russia would be too dependent on these oil deals to do anything drastic... like invade Ukraine.

How's that workin' out?

CD
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Germany has been buying oil from Russia since OPEC placed an embargo on any independent states that supported Israel in the early 70's which resulted in oil prices to quadruple. Most of Europe or at least France and Germany relied on about 95% of it's oil to come from OPEC, so Europe started buying oil from the Soviet Union, Norway and the US. Germany's fueling exploits are an exercise in shortsighted and politically driven decision making that now costs almost 3 times more than the rest of Europe. They're nuclear endeavors were basically put on the back burner after Chernobyl and then switched to their green initiative of wind turbine and solar, which was extremely aggressive, cost a fortune and after 20 years gives them what an extra 5% of green energy, a huge disaster simply because they put too much of their hopes in green energy and the actual purchases of fossil fuels have so far not decreased by much, I think fossil fuel still accounts for almost 80% of their fuel needs. Germany imports about 30% fossil fuel from Russia but they also import over 50% of their coal from Russia as well. Now we've got Germany's halting supply of natural gas through Nord Stream 2 from Russia and now we have Russia threatening to shut down the supply from Nord Stream 1, something like that, what a fiasco.
 
The Velvet Curtain said:
From the Sky News website this afternoon, posted without personal comment from me:

"

Russia-Ukraine negotiations 'much more serious than West is saying' and gaps between sides 'not great' - report​

A fascinating report has been published in the Jerusalem Post this afternoon, which quotes sources it says were privy to a meeting three days ago between Israeli PM Naftali Bennett and Vladimir Putin.
The gist of the story is that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are "much more serious than what the West has been saying".
It says Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been given a "final" version of Mr Putin's offer to end the crisis and - in a claim that would represent a rare glimmer of hope amid Russia's brutal attacks - "the gaps between the sides are not great" (assuming, as this correspondent is, that "great" is being used in its definition that relates to size rather than that which relates to quality).
"The real negotiations, according to the sources, are happening directly between Russia and Ukraine and are much more serious than what the West has been saying," the report claims.
"Kyiv has not shared with the West what has been going on in the negotiations since they do not want to [dampen] the worldwide sense of emergency."
The report outlined the following as the arrangement being offered to Ukraine's leader: "Zelenskyy can fortify Ukraine's independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognise the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality. If he declines the proposal, the outcome may be terrible: thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and there is a high probability that his country will completely lose its independence."
The newspaper goes on to say Mr Zelenskyy is "torn" over the offer.
It should be noted here that this report cannot be verified by Sky News, and that some will suggest information from sources close to Israel's government - which has had a close alliance with the Putin regime - may be tailored to support their own agenda.
However, if there does turn out to be any substance to claims that a deal is "difficult" but not "impossible", this could clearly be of huge significance."

Ukraine-Russia live updates: 'Catastrophic' situation in Mariupol as China warns NATO has put tensions at 'breaking point'
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I believe Zelensky has already said no to this, it's a timeline thing I'm thinking. Not 100% sure. Zelensky is holding out it appears, not sure if living to fight another day wouldn't be a viable option, considering. Putin like I said doesn't actually want to manage Ukraine, that just makes no sense on any front, but he will leave little left when this is all said and done if his demands aren't met.
 
garlichead said:
I believe Zelensky has already said no to this, it's a timeline thing I'm thinking. Not 100% sure. Zelensky is holding out it appears, not sure if living to fight another day wouldn't be a viable option, considering. Putin like I said doesn't actually want to manage Ukraine, that just makes no sense on any front, but he will leave little left when this is all said and done if his demands aren't met.
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I think where you and I disagree on Putin is the "makes no sense" part. He has said and written in the past that he believes the Ukraine is "part of Russia." That is not sensible thinking, but it was his own words. I just don't believe that Putin is thinking rationally.

His plan seemed to be to take Ukraine in a matter of a few days, and set up a puppet government -- maybe even putting Viktor Yanukovych back in power. I think (hopefully) he is learning the hard way that such a plan is not likely to succeed. I think he underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people -- and certainly of President Zelensky.

Perhaps, Putin is now considering some kind of deal because he sees that he won't be able to manage Ukraine if he eventually takes control. But, does than mean he will keep any deal he makes in the long term? That's the million-dollar question for me. Will he just lick his wounds, regroup, and take another shot a few years from now?

Bottom line: I would feel better about negotiations with Russia if Putin were to have a heart attack, or fall out of a window, before the talks -- as some of his opponents have.

CD
 
garlichead said:
I'm not so sure. The Russian people are not Putin.
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I was listening to NPR yesterday and this woman who lived in Ukraine but had parents living in Russia discussed how she had called her parents to talk to them about what was going on in Ukraine and they were in complete denial. They would not accept her insistence that civilians were being killed or anything else she had to say. They were convinced that the Russian propoganda they were being fed was fact and would not believe their own daughter when she told them otherwise. And then those "Z" people in Russia, fanatics who love and glorify Putin. SMH.
 
I was watching the news tonight and cried again, per the usual. Russia bombed a hospital with children and a maternity ward, they showed the explosion on TV and stated that there were children buried in the rubble. They showed a bomb crater, it was massive. There was a woman being carried out on a stretcher who looked dazed, holding her very pregnant belly...just horrific.
 
JAS_OH1 said:
I was listening to NPR yesterday and this woman who lived in Ukraine but had parents living in Russia discussed how she had called her parents to talk to them about what was going on in Ukraine and they were in complete denial. They would not accept her insistence that civilians were being killed or anything else she had to say. They were convinced that the Russian propoganda they were being fed was fact and would not believe their own daughter when she told them otherwise. And then those "Z" people in Russia, fanatics who love and glorify Putin. SMH.
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That has actually become a common thing. A Russian man living in Ukraine with his wife and baby told his dad in Russia what was happening, and his dad didn't believe him. The man started a web site about it, and thousands of people have said, "Me too."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP12RsF2YZ0


CD
 
caseydog said:
That has actually become a common thing. A Russian man living in Ukraine with his wife and baby told his dad in Russia what was happening, and his dad didn't believe him. The man started a web site about it, and thousands of people have said, "Me too."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP12RsF2YZ0


CD
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Yeah - lots of reports of those kinds of stories on UK TV. In one report a woman was in tears saying her parents told her she was lying and deluded. She said she was now unable to phone them because they were so angry with her.
 
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Morning Glory said:
What is?
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The complexity of the situation and gov't involvement on both sides would require an very involved and nuanced conversation where culpability and a defendable argument casts too much light on a narrative where the media from all sides would rather not go and prefer to dish out rainbows and unicorns (confirmation bias), similar to protests where a narrative is adopted to not confuse the masses and make sure they actually know why there's involved in the first place.....look they did it, shut up and don't think. If you want more nuance, start with the Maidan Revolution and this relates to the reference I made in an earlier post to the year 2014. Nothing is ever what it appears to be.
 
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